Has Farage bottled it?
No recent British public figure has aroused such acute feelings of adoration or hatred than Nigel Farage, barring comedian James Corden of course, who I find very unfunny. Farage has been remarkably successful in his influencing of British politics; the winning of the Brexit Referendum in 2016, the skewering of Theresa May in 2019 and the defenestration of Keir Starmer in 2026 were all heavily charged by Nigel Farage’s populist energy. Therefore, one must be cautious about declaring that someone who has been a fixture of recent British politics is on the way out. But I shall, in this article, take that very bold risk of futurology and stake my prediction in the ground that Farage has indeed bottled it.
Why do I take this risk so willingly? Though I am no supporter of the new Prime Minister Andy Burnham (as readers of my last article will know), it has become manifestly clear that the ‘King of the North’ is eroding Farage’s support, rapidly. Within just eight days of taking office electoral calculus’ opinion poll showed Burnham’s Labour overtaking Reform UK and even gave the Conservative Party a lead of five seats ahead of Farage and Reform if an election were called. This polling reversal reveals a twin problem for Nigel Farage; the resurgence of the two main parties and the appearance of Restore Britain on the scene. Kemi Badenoch’s steady renewal of the Conservative Party has helped it appear as the sensible alternative to Labour, while Farage has begun to flounder over the parliamentary standards inquiry into a £5 million donation he received and which he did not register. His decision to hold a by-election last week in his seat of Clacton-on-sea was an attempt to portray himself as an elite-fighting people’s champion but has comedically backfired, as Farage’s only opponent was a bin-wearing self-identified extraterrestrial.
Farage has also seen Reform lose support to another party named after a verb; far-right Restore Britain led by Rupert Lowe. Lowe, once one of Farage’s closest allies has fallen out with Farage and formed Restore, which has gained a small following but one which could be enough to spoil several needed electoral wins for Reform. Lowe’s beef with Farage shows that politicians with big egos cannot co-exist for a prolonged period in Reform UK because of the nature of the party being a total Faragefest. This will be a problem for the party which has taken on careerist Tory defectors like Jenrick and Braverman who by no means can be described as submissive or lowkey. Zia Yusuf will perhaps be the biggest troublemaker within Reform, given his relentless ambition and passion for aggressively attacking critics such as former Defence Secretary Ben Wallace who he called a traitor. I believe Yusuf will one day try and claim the Reform leadership, either from Farage himself or from another internal rival like Jenrick.
Ultimately only time will tell whether Farage can weather the growing storms he is facing. A forecast which last year foresaw a turquoise tsunami now predicts only a downpour. The combining forces of Andy Burnham, a renewed Conservative Party and brewing internal Reform rivalries mean that I am confident that Nigel Farage has indeed bottled it.
- Daniel Clatworthy